With Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggesting the opposition block particularly the Congress to shun negativity and play the role of constructive opposition in India’s journey to become a developed nation by 2024, confidence gets personified, as he showed that he has a complete command over things, the government and the party (BJP).
Assembly election results in four states – Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana – make a perfect replication of 2013 poll results, just a year ahead of the Modi era which began in the country in 2014.
The victory of BJP in three states – MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan – again sets the stage for the Prime Minister to make an easy comeback in 2024 Lok Sabha elections leading to a rare hat-trick at the national level.
A deeper analysis of the assembly poll results show that the BJP has perfected the strategy to go without a declared state leader as chief minister and fight the battle by keeping in front the face of PM Modi, who also has credibility personified, as he himself, while addressing party workers at BJP headquarters in New Delhi on Sunday evening, claimed that with him at the helm, guarantee given by his party is guaranteed to be delivered on the ground.
The results in Telangana, where Congress managed to dislodge Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) led by K Chandrasekhar Rao after he being in power for 10 years, for many reasons appeared a strategic retreat by the BJP and letting the Congress to defeat the incumbent. One among the many reasons, which is still a big riddle, as to why BJP removed its firebrand state President Bandi Sanjay a few months before the polls were announced. BJP had made its strong presence felt during Hyderabad municipal elections under Sanjay’s leadership.
However, the party gained substantially by grabbing over 15 percent of vote share and increasing the number of its MLAs in the assembly from one to nine. The party insiders feel that this time BJP has prepared a launching pad for itself and five years of Congress rule in the state would provide them a fertile ground.
Moreover, the big win for BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh do signal a far stronger and mightier Modi in 2024 and this extended the Congress ‘vanvas’ from the Hindi heartland at least for another 10 years.
Before the poll results were announced, analysts and political pundits claimed that there were many things going the Congress way with a hugely popular Rajasthan chief minister in Ashok Gehlot and a reasonably popular Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh. Welfare schemes of the both were being received well by the people. The delivery of the schemes was especially commendable in Rajasthan. And, so there were reasons to believe that anti-incumbency was in check in both the states.
It was believed that in Madhya Pradesh a four-time Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had induced deep voter fatigue. But the BJP’s top leadership’s decision to not project incumbent CM as its leader in the fray and projected Modi as the face of the party did the trick, many believed.
To add to the Modi’s appeal and credibility, it was also a jackpot scheme – Ladli Behna – launched by the Chouhan government did miracle for the BJP, high percentage of women voters decisively tilted the battle in favour of BJP, as the party came back to power with over two-third majority.
The Congress on its part decided to go with a CM face and appeared to have messed up the party’s campaign communication in a state like Madhya Pradesh. For instance, caste census for the OBCs was the big war cry of the Congress but its CM candidate Kamal Nath came from the upper caste. Even its other big leader, Digvijay Singh, is upper caste.
On the other hand, all the big local leaders the BJP had lined up – Chouhan, Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel, Kailash Vijayvargiya and Faggan Singh Kulaste – were from OBC communities or tribals.
In Chhattisgarh too it was tribal and women votes sailed the BJP through. With Election Commission managing to organise over 125 new polling booths for the first time in the Naxal affected areas of the state sent a clear signal that state is gradually getting rid of ‘Red Extremism’. PM Modi has a very strong appeal among the women voters and their high turnout made the difference.
Similarly in Rajasthan, PM Modi’s face and infighting in Congress (Between CM Gehlot and Sachin Pilot) sealed the fate of Congress and the BJP made a resounding comeback.
Credit: https://opinionadda.in/2023/12/04/assembly-elections-2023-its-pm-modis-credibility-vs-the-rest/ (opinionadda)
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