Kerala votes on 23 April for the 2019 general elections. Unlike the last three general elections (2004, 2009, and 2014), the results of this year’s general election in the state will decide the fate of Left parties (LDF) not only in the state but also at the national stage. The results will also reveal to what extent the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by BJP will perform in the state. Between the LDF and the NDA, what really matters will be the eventual vote shares that these two fronts would garner for themselves.
The number of seats that NDA may get in the state does matter, but not so much in THIS election as compared to the vote share. Having said that, I will add that winning a couple of parliamentary seats will indeed give the momentum for NDA to be seen as a potential third front when the state votes for the assembly soon after the general elections.
But for LDF, both the number of seats that they get and their vote share in this election are critical as they face an existential threat today. In this fight between the LDF and the NDA for vote share, the prospect of UPA running away with a greater number of seats is brighter. That should be seen more as a collateral damage and not as the ‘revival’ of the Congress Party as such. This is irrespective of Mr Rahul Gandhi contesting from Wayanad against the wishes of its frenemy, LDF.
Last bastion crumbles
Kerala remains the last bastion of Left politics remaining in the country. Therefore, a discussion on the Left and its downfall would be an appropriate thing to do now.
Friends, most of you would have seen several opinion polls conducted thus by many media agencies. Most of them clearly point to a fatal fall for the LDF in the state. One particular opinion poll has even projected as less as two to three seats for the LDF! I wouldn’t discount this projection because the case studies of West Bengal and Tripura force me to believe it.
West Bengal has clearly set a template that once the vote share of the Left parties falls, it keeps falling! Both in terms of seats and vote share.
While West Bengal has become virtually out of bounds for the Left due to its ever-decreasing vote share election after election, the case of Tripura is actually not that bad for the Left as per the last assembly election results. It held about 42% of the vote share in Tripura. Although BJP won the assembly elections by a narrow margin in vote share (less than 0.5%), what makes it significant for BJP was the huge jump in its vote share by about 35% from the previous assembly elections in Tripura.
West Bengal has clearly set a template that once the vote share of the Left parties falls, it keeps falling! Both in terms of seats and vote share. The Left never displayed the spirit of fighting back politically in that state in the previous elections. And with most of Left ‘goons’ shifting their allegiance to Mamata Didi, their primary right to ‘first use of violence’ and the associated intimidating power also got shifted to TMC! Today, when Left complains of violence by TMC goons, you can only think of the saying, ‘You reap what you sow’! Yes, it’s that time for the Left in West Bengal to receive in full with interest of what they gave others for over 30 long years.
Going by the track record of Left in West Bengal, the vote share of Left in Tripura is also likely to fall further. And as reports suggest, the two parliamentary seats in Tripura would go to BJP in all likelihood.
My friends in LDF in Kerala may argue with me on the ‘spirit of fighting back’ citing that the LDF fought back to power in Kerala many times earlier. Both in national and state elections. True. But my counter to that is the fact that it happened earlier because of the TINA factor. (TINA stands for ‘There Is No Alternative’.). With TINA at play, the people of Kerala had no choice but to turn to LDF and UDF alternately.
In the run-up to this general election, the nervousness of the Left has come to the fore on two fronts. One, through their favourite ‘hobby’ of unleashing violence on NDA supporters; and two, their growing ‘intolerance’ towards NDA in the state. In this game, the hypocrisy of the Left intellectuals/liberals and the ‘intolerance brigade’ comprising artists and writers stands exposed. Not a word of condemnation has come from this group so far! I am sure the people of Kerala are watching all this.
Dangerous nexus
When it comes to bashing NDA, both LDF and UDF join hands gleefully. With Left- and Congress-controlled media in their kitty, they have unleashed so much negative propaganda on NDA and its leadership over the past few years as being against the minority and poorer communities. The people of India have seen that it’s all part of their strategy to keep their vote banks safe. Kerala is also realising this truth. One can already see that happening in tangible form as the NDA is gaining substantial ground in the state causing enough heart burns, particularly for the Left.
The impression the Left parties had created over the years as ‘saviour’ of the poor and downtrodden has clearly gone out of the window. Today, they are ‘exploiting’ the poor as their core vote bank.
Post 23 May 2019, in the event of LDF performing badly in Kerala with its vote share reducing to an all-time low, what could probably happen first is the gradual movement of leftist leaders and intellectuals towards the Congress for ‘good’. As it is, many leftist ‘intellectuals’ have been writing in the mainstream media glorifying the deeds of the Congress Party for the country. Ironically, you will not find a word in those articles about the innumerable scams that the Congress Party has copyright on!
The second aspect is that the Left cadres could split down the middle with one half moving towards BJP (NDA) and the other towards the Congress. Sure enough, a few hard-core communists will stay put in the LDF itself. I see a strong possibility of this happening in Kerala.
If that happens, then the next assembly elections in Kerala would be a direct fight between the UPA/UDF and the NDA. Whatever is left of the Left would become a marginal player cosying up to the UPA openly, like Mr Kejriwal (AAP) was trying to do it in Delhi at the cost of ‘self-respect’.
The Third Wave
As for NDA, the focus should be increasing its vote share in the state ‘considerably’. In the process, if the NDA wins a couple of seats, well and good. Therefore, NDA supporters must go out and vote for their respective candidates on 23 April even if there is no hope for a win in some constituencies.
The impression the Left parties had created over the years as ‘saviour’ of the poor and downtrodden has clearly gone out of the window. Today, they are ‘exploiting’ the poor as their core vote bank. To top it all, Left today stands as a barrier between the ‘poor’ of this country and their aspirations!
The time is up for the Left to fade into oblivion from the politics of Kerala too.
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