The Uttarakhand assembly election may witness a photo-finish with the Bharatiya Janata Party emerging as the single largest party, a new poll has claimed. The Jan Ki Baat-India News opinion poll, conducted in the state between December 21, 2021, and January 9, 2021, claims that the BJP may be able to edge past the simple majority target overcoming the challenge posed by the Congress party.
The opinion poll projects that the BJP could win 34-38 seats in the 70-member assembly while the Congress could win up to 33 seats. Though in the BJP’s favour, the result may not please the BJP top brass in New Delhi, considering that the party had won 57 seats in the 2017 assembly elections.
The BJP appears to be on level grounds with the Congress party in terms of vote share. The data from the poll suggests that while the ruling BJP may corner 38 per cent of the total votes in the state, the Congress would manage to earn 36 per cent of the votes polled. According to the opinion poll, the Aam Aadmi Party, which could win around two six seats, could be in an advantageous position post-election.
Adding to the BJP’s woes, the poll data shows that the ruling dispensation, presently under Pushkar Singh Dhami, does not enjoy the support of the state’s people. At least 35 per cent of those surveyed said that the BJP administration’s performance has been average, while 25 per cent termed it poor.
Migration emerges as the top issue in this assembly election, with at least 40 per cent of the respondents choosing it over development (25 per cent), health (15 per cent), education (10 per cent) and corruption (10 per cent).
A closer examination of the polling data suggests that while 48 per cent of Brahmins and 42 per cent of Rajputs support the BJP, only 20 per cent of Schedules Caste respondents backed the party.
The Congress, on the other hand, enjoys equal endorsement from all communities, including SC (40 per cent), Rajputs (38 per cent) and Brahmins (35 per cent). The Jan ki Baat poll also found that the Congress party received a significant endorsement from the Muslim community, with at least 8- per cent of them supporting the Grand Old Party. The Sikh community votes were split almost evenly among Congress (38 per cent), AAP (35 per cent) and the BJP (27 per cent).
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