Cry as he might at the mess he is in today, Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy had made the choice with his eyes and ears open. He accepted a partnership with the Congress because the party offered him the chief ministership, and he headed the Government despite having just 37 MLAs in a House of 224. He knew the Congress would keep extracting its pound of flesh, again and again, and make his life miserable.
Kumaraswamy recently burst into tears while addressing cadres of his party, the Janata Dal (Secular). He said he was not happy being the Chief Minister, that he had swallowed poison like Lord Shiva, and that he was prepared to quit any moment. After a media furore broke out, his supporters explained that his remarks, made in Kannada, had been lost in translation into English. They added that he had not spoken against the alliance. They said that the Chief Minister was expressing a sentiment that so much more needed to be done for the people’s welfare and thus he was getting restless.
JD(S) spokespersons had a job to defend and they did, but not effectively. What was the ‘poison’ Kumaraswamy was referring to, if not the alliance with the Congress? Chief Ministers are not known to shed tears in public if they have been unable to push decisions with the speed they want to. Instead, they try harder through the political and administrative routes. Kumaraswamy’s emotional outburst comes in the backdrop of reports that all has not been well with the coalition. First, the Congress was opposed to the Chief Minister presenting a full-fledged Budget for the State; later its senior leaders criticised the Budget proposals for its regional ‘bias’ — in other words, sops for southern parts where the JD(S) has a strong base and neglect of the rest of the region. In the early days of the Government, serious friction had developed over portfolio allocation.
Taken aback by the teary-eyed drama, the Congress initially tried to laugh it off. But when it realised the futility of nonchalance, it changed gears, with its senior State leaders saying it is important for the Chief Minister to be happy because that is where the Congress’s happiness lies. Both the Congress and the JD(S) were quick to add that the State was being governed well. However, the facade that ‘all is well’ between the two, which they are trying to create, is not holding up. Doubts are being expressed over the continuation of the alliance — even until the 2019 Lok Sabha election, let alone for its full term of five years.
A collapse of the alliance is just what the Bharatiya Janata Party is looking forward to. Only recently, the party’s tallest leader in the State, BS Yeddyurappa, had openly exhorted disgruntled Legislators from both the Congress and the JD(S) to switch over to his party. It was an unnecessary comment which gave the ruling parties in the State a reason to accuse the BJP of plotting horse-trading. But that still does not take away from the fact of discontent in the coalition. With a break looking imminent, the only real question is: What will happen thereafter?
There are a few tantalising possibilities. The first is that the JD(S) and the BJP joins hands in an alternative Government formation, throwing out the Congress. The second is that the BJP adds to its seat deficit through defections from either the JD(S) or the Congress or both, and forms the Government. The third is that neither of above happens, the House is dissolved and a fresh election is announced. Kumaraswamy has done business with the BJP earlier. It is possible that left to himself he might have aligned with the same party after the voters threw up a hung Assembly, but his father, former Prime Minister and party supremo HD Deve Gowda, decided to ally with the Congress.
The first two possibilities come with their own sets of controversies and challenges. In case of a fresh election, it is unlikely that the JD(S) will perform any differently, because its support base still remains largely limited to southern Karnataka. It would still end as the third party. It’s the tussle between the BJP and the Congress that would be a contest to watch out for. In the recent election, the voters clearly preferred the BJP, giving it the largest number of seats and pushing the ruling Congress to the second spot.
A collapse of ties between the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) would be a setback to efforts by the opposition to present a united front against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha poll. It will leave the opposition further red-faced in case Kumaraswamy joins hands with the BJP. It happened in Bihar when Nitish Kumar broke his partnership with the RJD (and the Congress) and tied up with the BJP. The last word in the Karnataka drama has not been said yet.
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