When asked if there is an apparent connection between IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and the US stock market, we can state categorically that there is none. However, the day after confirmation of Baghdadi’s assassination, the US stock market skyrocketed. There was a significant collapse in the days following the collapse of the World Trade Center! That is, all contemporary research indicates that it is inexorably related to world peace and economic advancement. That is why many of the European countries that previously sent armies to the Crusades now have nothing but plaster lines along their borders.
That is one of the reasons why everyone fears war. Economic effects are significantly more severe than military consequences. Globalisation has created a situation where troubles in one area of the world can affect markets in other parts of the world. Larry Collins and Dominic Lapierre penned the account of Britain’s post-World War II collapse while their country lacked the ability to pipe hot water to its citizens in the morning.
This time, there is an additional issue as the world is gradually recovering from Covid 19. We are on the verge of another conflict as a result of the power-hungry psychopath Russian President Vladimir Putin. What the international community fears most about the Russia-Ukraine confrontation are its economic ramifications. Without a doubt, this issue will have no bearing on non-party countries, including India.
A fanatic similar to Hitler
The greatest threat to international peace now is Putin, Russia’s democratically elected ruler. The international press, notably the BBC and the Washington Post, portray him as a ruthless person on a par with Hitler. Many applauded and encouraged Hitler as he grew up in Germany. Putin is pursuing the same agenda that Hitler did in the past in Europe. That day, when the Nazi extremist invaded Poland for the first time, his friend Stalin rallied to his aid. After that, Czechoslovakia was annexed. Western powers and the Soviet Union, on the other hand, kept silent. Hitler eventually absorbed nearly all of Europe. Putin’s journey is nearly the same.
Since 1999, the former KGB officer has ruled Russia. Now, the constitution has been changed to provide for the continuation of the presidency until the president’s death. In other words, Russia will last 35 years longer under Putin than it did under Stalin. He is truly Russia’s Emperor. Putin was capable of shoving whomever he pleased anyplace. The election itself was a farce. He assassinated everyone who stood in his way. Alexei Navalny, the opposition’s most powerful leader, was poisoned with a severe nerve agent last year. Hired assassins to eliminate journalists who criticise him. Today, Putin has amassed billions as wealth and possesses Numerous concubines and wives.
Putin desires the reunification of Russia with the former Soviet states. According to him, the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century. In other words, Putin is anti-communist. As a part of this agenda Crimea, a Ukrainian province, was annexed in 2015 by Russian troops. Putin’s soldiers invaded Georgia in 2008, seizing the province of Abkhazia and converting it into a Russian military camp. Consider that they are deploying troops to a sovereign state. Others are on the lookout. Can India remain silent as Pakistani forces invade Bangladesh and grab a town?
Putin’s argument is perplexing. To safeguard the interests of Russians who make up less than 20% of the population in Ukraine. Putin is opposed to Georgia or Ukraine approaching NATO. Russia is currently waging a proxy war against Ukraine for attempting to join NATO. Putin’s determination that NATO’s base in Ukraine poses a threat to them. NATO, including the Baltic states, already includes former Soviet republics. Moscow can be attacked only from NATO’s Black Sea navy. Putin did not address the reason for their encroachment to Ukraine.
NATO presently has 30 members, up from 16 when the Soviet Union dissolved. NATO members include Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, as well as Russia’s neighbours Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. Georgia and Ukraine are the only countries left. If one of NATO’s members is attacked, the other members are obligated to come to their aid. This effectively puts an end to Putin’s dream of a united Russia. This is Putin’s true dilemma.
Russia and Putin have endured a great deal
Putin established the Eurasian Economic Union in lieu of the European Union. However, it does not get enough momentum. Everybody, including the former Soviet states, shudders at the prospect of Europe. They are not seeking Russia’s totalitarianism but rather the sought independence of Europe. They place a higher premium on the European Union and NATO than on a dictator like Putin.
Russia has also suffered significantly as a result of these incursions. Russia withdrew from the G8 in 2015 following its invasion of Crimea in Ukraine and annexation of Russia. The G8, the most renowned organisation in the world, was reduced to the G7. Only seven countries are on that perilous list that currently governs the world, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan. Additionally, the US imposed sanctions on Russia. It was a factor in slowing Russia’s economic growth.
However, tyrants are unconcerned about the country collapsing or how many people die in the country. All they need to do is allow their ego to triumph. Russia will also suffer greatly if the attack on Ukraine continues. One is military devastation. NATO cannot be expected to sit quietly by. The Ukrainian army, which presently numbers around 250000, is insignificant in comparison to Russia’s strong army. Russia, on the other hand, is no match for NATO’s air and naval forces. However, both are nuclear powers, and Putin is a psychopath who will do anything. This is what is holding back the European powers.
If conflict breaks out, the US and Europe are certain to slap sanctions on Russia. This time around, extremely formidable strategies are being developed to isolate Russia. According to the BBC, allies are considering Russia’s expulsion from the Swift banking system, which facilitates money transfers between banks. As a result, Russia will be unable to send or receive international electronic payments. Thus, the country would suffer a loss in the billions. As a result, the Russian Rubble’s value will collapse precipitously.
Additionally, the country will experience uncontrolled inflation. However, dictators are unconcerned about the country collapsing. Bear in mind Mao Zedong. Even though millions died due to Mao’s regime reforms, he considered it a gag!
However, the BBC believes that the US is also plotting to personally trap Putin. In other words, it is critical for Putin and his henchmen the U S may freeze their unaccounted assets in Swiss banks and other banks across the globe. Another course of action they envision is freezing the assets of anyone affiliated with Putin. However, Putin’s wealth in Russia alone is in the billions. Nobody has any control over it. These are the assets Putin has amassed outside of Russia out of fear of a coup. Given Russia’s nature, there is little chance of a coup occurring in the near future.
Petrol and diesel prices will increase significantly
Consider that if Russia and Ukraine go to war, it will affect India, which is thousands of kilometres distant. The world’s media and experts warn that this battle could result in the sharpest surge in petroleum prices in history.
Russia is a significant crude oil producer. As a result, the Ukraine situation will increase crude oil prices worldwide. The price has now surpassed its September 2014 high. At the moment, the price of a barrel is $ 96.7. Experts say this will approach $100, and possibly even $150. If this occurs, global GDP growth will be reduced to 0.9 per cent. Experts believe that the price of CNG and power in India may increase. Subsidies on LPG and kerosene may increase as crude oil prices continue to rise, which will burden the Indian exchequer.
India’s primary challenge is the rise in petrol and diesel prices. In November, the country’s fuel costs were lowered by approximately Rs. However, experts in the sector believe that the scenario in Ukraine could push petrol prices up to Rs 7 per litre in India. Tuesday alone saw an almost 4% increase in crude oil prices. Inflation poses a significant problem for India, which imports 85 per cent of its oil. This could affect the economy’s recovery following Covid. Another danger is escalating inflation. It is a natural occurrence that when the price of gasoline increases, the price of other necessary items increases as well. That is, the war in Ukraine will increase the price of everything from common salt to gold.
If hostilities escalate, the US and other Western nations will put sanctions on Russia. If that occurs, the situation will deteriorate. America, too, has plenty to celebrate in this area. This is because the US has already expressed opposition to the proposed Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would connect Russia and Germany directly. It is a project that aims to supply natural gas directly to Germany, bypassing Ukraine. Germany avoided taking a harsh approach against Russia as a result of this plan. Germany’s new government was elected by the middle class in a landslide victory. Thus, reducing the natural gas price will benefit the common people of Germany. However, if the Ukraine conflict escalates, the pipeline will be delayed due to US sanctions. Then this project needed to be abandoned. Russia exports 40% of the total natural gas consumed by the 27-member European Union. Fuel prices are increasing across Europe as imports decline. Similarly, a nuclear pact between Hungary and Russia is long overdue. So, Hungary is likewise pursuing a conciliatory stance toward Russia.
However, if Russia is sanctioned, the Ruble will GET weakened, increasing the value dollar. This is advantageous for the United States. That is why certain US analysts frequently assert that Russia has invaded Ukraine.
Meanwhile, it is believed that negotiations to lift US sanctions against Iran will continue. Even if Iran’s oil enters the market, it is predicted that the Russian supply shortage will persist. The Russia-Ukraine dispute began when Iran was set to deliver an additional five million barrels of oil in April and May. This represents a significant setback for efforts to bring global oil prices down. International oil prices peaked at $ 147 per barrel in July 2008.
Russia is a world leader in wheat production. Ukraine is ranked fourth. If these countries engage in hostilities, the price of wheat will rise. Together, Russia and Ukraine account for a fourth of global wheat exports. According to a United Nations assessment, food prices have been rising due to the Covid crisis.
The metal market will be significantly impacted in the case of conflict. Russia is coping with the possibility of sanctions by increasing the price of palladium, a metal essential in the making of mobile phones. This is because Russia is the world’s leading producer of palladium.
Russia holds a significant reserve of Aluminium, Copper, Cobalt, and natural gas. Sanctions placed on Russia will result in significant disruptions in the supply of these products to the global market. As a result, the price of some items may increase. Thus, the Russian occupation of Ukraine may potentially put back the electric car and green energy sectors, both of which are undergoing significant transformations on a worldwide scale.
In 2021, Russia generated 37 million tonnes of aluminium. It has a 6% global market share. Russia is also the world’s greatest aluminium exporter. Aluminium prices have increased up to 15% so far this year. Russian natural gas production was 63,900 billion cubic metres last year. It accounts for 17% of global output. Russia’s decision to curtail natural gas exports to Europe has aggravated the continent’s natural gas shortfall.
Copper use has expanded significantly in tandem with electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, and power networks. In electric cars, Copper is expected to be utilised four times more much as in internal combustion automobiles. If Russia’s supply of Copper is cut off, the implications for the electric vehicle industry will be enormous. Additionally, Russia is a significant producer of cobalt, a critical component of batteries. By 2021, cobalt prices had increased by up to 90%. This is expected to have an effect on the vehicle market, particularly on automobiles.
Inflation began to soar as a result of the fear of conflict.
Meanwhile, business media sources indicate that small-scale global inflation has already begun in response to war worries. In Russia and Ukraine, inflation is already high. Because people purchase and stockpile essentials out of fear of the uncertainty related to war. Inflation has a greater impact on Ukraine than on Russia. The gun is the most expensive thing in the country. There is a significant demand for firearms amid the Russian incursion in Ukraine.
Simultaneously, the media says that all healthy young individuals, including teenagers, have purchased firearms. Ukraine is well aware that its forces are insignificant in comparison to Russia’s 850000 troops. That is why they also intensively train people. Women are being rounded up and taught the fundamentals of military training and resistance at military camps. Previously, Ukraine was powerless to intervene when Russian troops occupied Crimea. There were only a few Ukrainian soldiers present. Russia annexed the territory following a bloodless revolution.
However, Western media outlets indicate that Ukrainian officials have verified that this time things will not be as easy as Crimea for Russian troops. According to the BBC, several groups of young people singing the national anthem can be spotted around the streets, many of them with firearms. One thing is certain even if NATO is not backing also, Russia will not be able to overcome Ukraine that easily.
The Issues in the United States
Meanwhile, the Washington Post claims that there is a backlash against US President Joe Biden in the United States for failing to take a strong stance on the matter. According to a television poll, the majority of Americans believe Biden’s cold-blooded approach is escalating the crisis and that Russian aggravation should be contained. It is obvious that Biden’s lukewarm response has harmed America’s image of world police.
Meanwhile, Former President Donald Trump’s appearance on the scene to criticise Biden was also highlighted by several media houses. Trump stated that if he had been in power, Putin would not have done this to Ukraine. Trump’s statement came in response to Putin’s recognition of eastern Ukraine’s breakaway provinces as separate entities. Trump also accused the Joe Biden administration of being ineffective in responding to Russia’s manoeuvre.
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