One never thought by-elections could lead to electrifying interpretations of the country’s political scenario. But ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party has been losing them post-2014 Lok Sabha election, political pundits have decided that the party in under threat of losing out to ‘opposition unity’ in the coming Lok Sabha poll. There is no doubt that the losses have dented the BJP’s image of invincibility and that it faces a real challenge ahead. But it is also true that the dynamics at the time of a full-fledged election — whether State or parliamentary — are different. It cannot be said with certainty that those dynamics will match the local ones we have witnessed in the by-elections so far. Opposition arithmetic is one thing; chemistry is another. It can be argued that opposition chemistry was there in the by-polls held so far, but that can change in a Lok Sabha election when the tussle for seat-share and the leadership factor come into play.
Meanwhile, it is interesting to note that paeans are being sung over the ‘revival’ of certain parties and their leaders based on victory in a seat or two. For instance, commentators are speaking about the ‘re-emergence’ of Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) after its candidate wrested the prestigious Kairana Lok Sabha seat from the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The RLD did not win on its strength alone; it was backed directly by the Samajwadi Party and indirectly by the Bahujan Samaj Party. How is victory on one seat — and that too with opposition help — indicate that a party which had been wiped out in the previous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, has made a come-back? Even Mayawati’s party, which tacitly supported the RLD, and the Samajwadi Party in the previous by-polls in the State to Phulpur and Gorakhpur and had not put up its candidate following an old rule that it does not contest by-polls, is said to have made a ‘comeback’. The Samajwadi Party too believes that good days have returned for it, since it has won three by-poll seats (two of Lok Sabha) from the State in the last few months.
The Kairana result has overwhelmed other interesting outcomes in the latest round of by-elections. The BJP retained the Palghar Lok Sabha seat in Maharashtra. Ordinarily, this would not have been of consequence since the party had won it in 2014 too. But four years ago it had won in alliance with the Shiv Sena. This time around the Shiv Sena, although technically still an ally, had put up its candidate against the BJP, and yet the latter won. It was a prestige battle for the Sena, and it lost, thus strengthening the BJP’s bargaining power in Maharashtra. The result could either hasten the Sena’s departure from the BJP-led alliance or lead to a recalibration between the two parties to stay together.The other significant outcome for the BJP, which like Palghar, offers a ray of hope for the party, was in Maheshtala Assembly constituency in West Bengal. While the ruling Trinamool Congress comprehensively won the contest, the second position was occupied by the BJP — and not by by the Left Front or the Congress. This is yet another indication that the BJP has decisively become the main challenger to Mamata Banerjee’s party in the State.
In the midst of losses, the BJP’s vote shares have dipped, but not plunged to alarming levels. In Palghar, the party secured a little over 40 per cent of the share. In 2014, it was close to 50 per cent, but that was in partnership with the Shiv Sena. If the party on its own could not only win the seat but also get a high share of votes, it does reflect on its level of strength. Also, let us not lose sight of the fact that while the Nationalist Congress Party-Congress exults in their victory from Bhandara-Gondiya, the combine ended up as an also-ran in Palghar, far behind even the Shiv Sena. In the Noorpur Assembly seat in Uttar Pradesh, which the BJP lost to the Samajwadi Party, the BJP’s vote share actually went up from 39 per cent in the last Assembly election to 42 per cent; that this did not translate into a win is another issue. But the BJP lost both seats and vote-share in Kairana.
We then return to the old question: Has opposition unity finally arrived, and is it working? Some amount of circumspection is required for the moment. Remember, the Congress put up its candidate in RR Nagar Assembly constituency in Karnataka against its newest ally, the Janata Dal (Secular), besides taking on the BJP. Opposition unity is work in progress for now, and the fulcrum of such unity remains to be decided. if the Congress does well in the forthcoming Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, it can stake a claim forcefully.
Meanwhile, why is no one talking of the Aam Aadmi Party’s performance in the Shahkot Assembly constituency in Punjab, which the Congress won? The AAP, which had made Punjab its second gateway (after Delhi) of its national ambitions, ended up with just a handful of votes. Arvind Kejriwal’s Punjab dream has effectively ended.
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