The NDA has clear edge over its rivals in Bihar in the forthcoming Assembly elections. As always, BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party much ahead of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar led JD(U). Although both the parties are openly not giving much credence to this, it could give a heartburn to JD(U) which feels threatened by BJP’s aggressive campaigning.
It is a fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the main attraction though Chief Minister Nitish Kumar continues to be the chief campaigner for the combine.
Opinion polls indicate Nitish Kumar-led NDA getting clear lead over rivals. IANS-ABP-CVoter survey shows that JD(U) and BJP alliance will get 135-159 seats in the assembly elections, getting a clear majority.
According to the survey, the BJP will emerge as the largest party in the assembly as per the opinion with 73-81 seats while JD(U) will get between 59 and 87 seats.
As per the opinion poll, RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan alliance will get 77-98 seats. Chirag Paswan’s LJP is an also ran with a projection of 1-5 seats while other parties get 4-8 seats. Tejashwi Yadav led RJD is projected to win the lion’s share of 56-64 seats while the Congress will win 12-20 seats.
The range of seats projections in the political regions based on Lok Sabha mapping shows the NDA will get between 16-20 seats in East Bihar, 36-44 in Magadh-Bhojpur, 27-31 in Mithilanchal, 45-49 in North Bihar and 11-15 in Seemanchal region.
The BJP will have the best strike rate in the elections of 70 per cent as it is expected to win 77 seats out of 110 it is contesting. The JD-U will have a much lower strike rate of 54.8 per cent by 63 leads in 115 seats that it is contesting. Nitish Kumar has been projected as the face of the campaign and the CM candidate.
The poll sample size is 30,678 and the period of the survey is October 1-23. The total tracker sample size is 60,000 plus in last 12 weeks. The methodology is covering all 243 Assembly segments and the margin error is +/- 3 per cent at State level and +/-5 per cent at regional level.
Data is weighted to the known Census profile, including Gender, Age, Education, Rural/Urban, Religion and Caste apart from the voting recalls for last Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.